Coach
The present—
“How the hell does Jake do that? He seems to know what defense we’re calling every time. Disguised corner blitz, and they send the tight end to the spot vacated. Drop back in deep coverage just before the snap and they break a big gain with a quick, short pass over the middle to the running back.”
“When we saw what they’ve been doing to the other teams they played, I wondered if they were hacking into the headsets, so I had the IT folks look into that. They said there’s no way they could do that. The system is secure. I don’t think they’re stealing our signals. But I agree, they sure do make a lot of changes right at the line of scrimmage.”
“Then Jake must be a effing mindreader. From seven and ten to leading the Conference in one year.”
A year and a half ago—
Jake Bowzer, the offensive coordinator for the NFL Madison Mudhens, was worried as he walked outside the empty practice facility to a meeting with the general manager, Tom Tussle and his head coach, Bob Buffo. Yeah, seven and ten isn’t great, and we missed the playoffs, but we did better than last year’s five and twelve. I hope the new owner doesn’t want immediate results. I thought me and Bob agreed that it would take a few years to get to where we wanted to be.
He climbed the stairs and opened Tom’s office door and was shocked to see the team’s new owner, Ziggy Smart also there. Oh, oh, Jake thought, must be something big for Smart to be here. Am I gonna get canned? His armpits started to sweat and his palms got wet.
Ziegfeld Smart—who got into artificial intelligence at the start, and was still THE major player in the field. His net worth was a closely guarded secret, for he was a very private person, but from what could be gleaned from records, he was a more than enormously wealthy person. Given his nature and presumed lack of interest in sports, it came as a great surprise when it was announced that the new owner of a mediocre NFL franchise, the Madison Mudhens, was he. It’s said that he was given his unusual first name as a take off on an old Broadway show, the Ziegfeld Follies, by his father because he was the unplanned last child in his family.
Jake wiped his right hand on his pants as he stepped into the room to shake hands with the three men present.
Tom said, “Jake, I don’t think you’ve met Mr. Smart, our owner, before.”
“I’m very pleased to meet you, Mr. Smart, sir,” Jake said. “You must be a very busy man, so it’s a surprise and an honor to find you here.” Oh God, is he going to lower the boom?
“If you’re worried about why I’m here, let me put your mind at ease. I thought you made satisfactory progress with the team from last year to this,” Smart replied.
Jake felt a huge sense of relief, thinking—satisfactory progress—he’s okay with this year’s results.
“But of course we can’t just be satisfied with satisfactory,” Smart continued.
“Oh I fully agree,”Jake said. “Right Bob?” Buffo nodded.
“And that’s why I asked you to come to this meeting,” Tom Tussle said. “As you must be aware, Mr. Smart is THE leader in the field of Artificial Intelligence. He’s shared his ideas with Bob and me and now wants you to be included.”
‘To be included,’ Jake thought. Man this must be really something big. And I’ll be in on it too.
“But whatever we talk about and decide, you can never repeat. Not to anyone. Not ever! If you don’t think you can agree to that, then it’s best that you leave now. Take a minute to think about it and decide,” Tom continued.
To not even know what I’m agreeing to and I have to decide blind? What if it’s a criminal act? But Bob agreed and he’s the most straight up guy I know. Really honest, ethical. So if he’s in on this——? “Bob, you know what this is all about and agreed?” asked Jake.
“Yes,” Buffo replied.
Jake took a deep breath. “Okay. I’m in.”
“You can call me Ziggy too,” Smart began.
“Thank you sir—I mean Ziggy,” Jake said. Call him Ziggy too? Wow.
“You know that analytics in all sports is routine now,” Smart began. “It started with baseball and as owners and coaches saw that it gave the team using it a leg up, everyone began to copy. Football was no exception. What were the odds of a favorable outcome in going for it on fourth down at what yardage, which stage of the game, given the opponent, and so on. Follow?”
Jake nodded.
Tussle interjected, “Excuse me Ziggy, but one last check before you go further. Jake, if you sense where this may be headed, one last chance to opt out if you’re worried.”
“No, I’m still okay.” Opt out? This gotta be big. But what? Analytics? And Smart is an AI guy.
Smart continued, “In your case, as the Mudhens offensive coordinator, what if you knew what the defense would do before you called a play, 94.7 percent of the time?”
“It’d be like mind reading their defensive coordinator,” Jake said. 94.7 percent!? Pretty specific figure. Wow! Got to see where this goes!
As if Smart were a mind reader himself, he said, “The 94.7 figure is not something pulled out of thin air. It is real. Three years ago, out of curiosity and boredom, I looked into the quality of the number crunching and analytics that NFL teams use, and discovered it was fairly basic. And I thought, I bet I can do better. I began by looking at all sixteen teams in the conference the Mudhens were in—it was just a coincidence that it was the Mudhens conference. I set up a program, I called it Lombardi, to put every game, every situation in each game, and the plays that each defensive coordinator dialed up, into computers, along with the characteristics and records of each of each team’s defensive players. “
Holy shit, thought Jake, ‘Lombardi’, he is the AI god. Is this covered in the rules?
Smart continued, “I decided to start with the defensive side. And over the course of a year’s worth of data, each defensive coordinator’s tendencies emerged based on the situation, the look of the offense, and the personnel involved. And if there were changes in staff or personnel, that too was fed into the program. I tested it with real time games the following year, and that’s how the 94.7% figure was derived. Follow, Jake?”
“Thank you, Mr. Smart,” Jake replied, “No, you explain it very clearly. But how-ah-do the rules cover this?”
“They don’t, and that’s the beauty,” Smart said. “Then when I learned that the Mudhens might be up for sale I saw a chance to test Lombardi in the real world. The Mudhens were, before you and Bob came on of course, the bottom feeders of their division, and so their price was not astronomical. And if things didn’t work out, I could put them up for sale again and not take a huge loss.”
So we’re nothing more than a test of concept to him, thought Jake. A rich guy’s plaything. It was a deflating moment. He said nothing and waited.
Buffo said, “Jake, I hired you as my offensive coordinator, because Tom and I were impressed with your work as quarterback’s coach with the Waco Warthogs even though you were young. You’ve more than justified our decision. Now you’ll have a great chance to do an even better job.”
“Yeah, I guess,” Jake replied. To be handed their playbook in each game. Not quite honest, but not covered by the rules. What if this gets out? And if we win, how much is from me and how much is due to Lombardi? “Yeah, I mean let’s do it! Is Chaz (the Mudhens’s defensive coordinator) in on this?”
“Not for now,” Tussle replied.
“So just the three of us,” Jake said. “And mum’s the word.”
“Yes,” said Smart.
“I’ve got a lot to think about and absorb. Thank you Mr. Smart—I mean Ziggy—for trusting me,” Jake said.
“And let’s get beyond ‘satisfactory’ this coming season,” Smart said.
“Absolutely!’ Jake said. With a little help from my friends or AI.
After Jake left, Tussle said, “He’s a good man, I’m glad he came on board. You won’t tell him about ‘Belichick’?
“No, but I’ll be comparing what plays Jake runs, with what my offensive program ‘Belichick’ suggests. As long as what he decides works well and we win, there’s no need to make him feel pressure or to worry him,” said Ziggy. “The players need to have a person they relate to calling the plays. And they like Jake. I don’t think they’re ready to have an AI as coach. But who knows—maybe someday.”
Yeah, Buffo thought, ‘someday’ AI on offense, AI on defense; so who’ll need any coaches at all and we’ll all be out of jobs.
The Long and The Short of It 